Trump gains support from Hispanic and Black voters, while Harris gains support from white women, indicating a tight race in polling.
Washington, October 25 According to a polling analysis, Republican Donald Trump has all but eliminated Democrats' historic lead among Hispanic men ahead of the presidential election on November 5 when he will take on Democrat Kamala Harris.
The analysis of more than 15,000 responses to polls conducted in the month through October 21 and during the same period of 2020 shows that former President Trump now trails Vice President Harris among Hispanic men by just 2 percentage points, 44% to 46%, compared to his 19-point deficit with Democrat Joe Biden at the same point in 2020.
White women, who backed Trump over Biden by 12 points in late 2020 but now tilt Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%, have shifted their support for Harris, offsetting Trump's gains. According to the most recent survey, which was taken from October 16–21, Harris is only slightly ahead of the other contender, 46% to 43%, in what is expected to be an extremely close contest.
Trump is strengthening his lead with Black and Hispanic voters, especially men, while Harris has eroded the Republicans' long-standing lead with white voters by gaining ground with women. These changes are part of broader shifts in the coalitions that each candidate is depending on to win.
Robert Alomia, a Hispanic security firm employee in Elizabeth, New Jersey, plans to vote for Donald Trump this year after a 2020 absence. Alomia, who works at a security firm, appreciates Trump's leadership and quick thinking. He is also sympathetic to Trump's hardline views on immigration.
Trump has accused the Biden administration of leaving the southern border open to migrants, while Harris criticized Trump for pressuring Congress to abandon a bipartisan border security bill. Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. electorate, have traditionally leaned heavily Democratic, but Trump has made significant gains.
Recent polling shows Trump has gained support from 37% of registered Hispanic voters, up from 30% in 2020. Harris is at 51%, compared to Biden's 54% four years earlier.
Trump won 38% of Hispanic votes in 2020, 21 points below Biden, but still holds the biggest share for a Republican candidate since President George W. Bush won 44% in 2004. The numbers are subject to sampling error and have levels of precision of 2-6 percentage points.
A CHANGE IN BLACK MEN
Additionally, the Republican is on course to weaken the Democratic Party's base among Black voters. According to recent polls, he was chosen by about 18% of Black men, up from 14% four years ago, and 8% of Black women, up from 4%. According to exit polls conducted after the 2020 election, Trump was chosen by 8% of Black voters overall, compared to 12% in the most recent poll.
Republican campaign strategist Kristin Davison believes that Trump is wooing Black voters by convincing them that the Democratic Party is too extreme on social issues. She believes Trump has successfully wooed Black men and Hispanics in the last four years, not only on the economy, hard work, but also on country and family.
Trump's history of racial tension and injustice is a significant issue for both supporters and detractors. Kedrick Benford, a Black voter in Houston, believes he will vote for Trump this time.
Trump is considered more experienced than Harris, who has kept the race close by winning over white women, who made up about four in 10 voters in 2020.
While the two candidates' shares of support from white men remain unchanged, Harris' boost among white women means Trump is only leading by nine points with white voters overall, compared to when he led Biden by 14 points with them in 2020. Democrats have effectively focused women on abortion following the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court ruling ending the nationwide right to abortion.
Women are increasingly evaluating the leadership and character of the vice president and Trump, influencing their choices.
Democratic strategist Meghan Hays suggests that the vice president must widen her lead among women voters to counter Trump's advantage with Black and Latino men. Donna Berg, a white woman from St.
Charles, Illinois, voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, but decided to quit following the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol attack. Berg believes the Republican Party has veered into extremism under Trump's leadership and will vote for Hillary Clinton this year.
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