India and Canada have removed their top diplomats amid rising tensions over the death of a Sikh separatist on Canadian grounds, signaling a new low in a hitherto amicable relationship. While previous conflicts have strained relationships, none have reached this degree of open conflict.
In 1974, India stunned the world by detonating a nuclear weapon, causing indignation in Canada, which accused India of taking plutonium from a Canadian reactor, a gift meant purely for peaceful use.
Canada and India have cooled relations, with Canada suspending support for India's atomic energy programmer. However, neither country has expelled their top diplomats, as tensions escalated over the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canada-based Sikh leader. The expulsions came after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed Canadian police were investigating allegations of Indian agents' and the Indian government's involvement in the June 2023 killing.
Canadian police accused Indian agents of involvement in "homicides, extortion and violent acts" targeting pro-Khalistan supporters advocating a separate Sikh homeland in India. Delhi rejected the allegations as "preposterous". Canada has 770,000 Sikhs living in Canada, the largest Sikh diaspora outside Punjab. Sikh separatism, rooted in a bloody insurgency in India, continues to strain relations between the two countries.
The relationship between the US and China has reached a critical point, with the US making severe complaints, removing ambassadors and top diplomats, and issuing harsh diplomatic declarations, according to Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center.
Other observers think that this is a watershed point in history.
Ryan Touhey, a history professor at St. Jerome's University, argues that Canada-India relations have significantly deteriorated under the Trudeau government, despite former Prime Minister Stephen Harper's ministry's efforts to establish a "prolonged period of rapprochement" between the two countries, addressing issues like Khalistan and nuclear proliferation.
"Instead, given Canada's large Indian diaspora, emphasis was placed on the value of commercial and education relations, as well as people-to-people links. It's also worth mentioning that the Khalistan problem appears to have vanished since the turn of the millennium. It has abruptly erupted again."
Canadian Prime Minister Harper has faced allegations of a potential link between India's government agents and the killing of a Canadian citizen. Canadian police have approached at least a dozen people, particularly members of the pro-Khalistan movement, over the past few months due to credible and imminent threats. They alleged subsequent investigations uncovered "a significant amount of information about the breadth and depth of criminal activity orchestrated" by India agents, and consequential threats to Canadians. Canada's allegations come at a time when Trudeau appears to be battling anti-incumbency at home with elections nearing.
A new poll by Ipsos reveals only 28% overall think Trudeau deserves re-election and only 26% would vote for the Liberals. India's foreign ministry ascribed Canada's allegations to the "political agenda of the Trudeau government that is centered around vote bank politics." In 2016, Trudeau had more Sikhs in his cabinet than Prime Minister Narendra Modi's in India. The Indian diaspora in Canada, once predominantly Punjabi and Sikh, has become more diverse, now including a significant number of Hindus and immigrants from southern India and the western state of Gujarat. However, Mr. Touhey believes that the crisis with India has more to do with the Canadian government "repeatedly missing signals from Delhi regarding Indian concerns over pro-Khalistani elements in Canada."
Indian governments are feeling the pressure to address pro-Khalistani elements in Canada, despite decades of pleas for their cooperation. The current government in Delhi is more aggressive in reining in perceived domestic threats, causing a rapid deterioration in bilateral ties. This disconnect is attributed to the perception that India views a dangerous threat as activism and dissent protected by free speech, and neither is willing to make concessions.
However, the long-standing relationship between Canada and India, which includes hosting one of the largest Indian-origin communities and ranking as Canada's top source of international students since 2018, may not be lost. The relationship is more broad-based than ever due to the size of the diaspora, the diversity of the diaspora, and increased bilateral trade. Experts believe that people-to-people links will be okay, but the current Canadian government has limited options at the high bilateral level. Delhi is now accusing Canada of sheltering and sponsoring anti-India terrorists, with the language used against Canada being stronger than against Pakistan.
However, the long-standing relationship between Canada and India, which includes hosting one of the largest Indian-origin communities and ranking as Canada's top source of international students since 2018, may not be lost. The relationship is more broad-based than ever due to the size of the diaspora, the diversity of the diaspora, and increased bilateral trade. Experts believe that people-to-people links will be okay, but the current Canadian government has limited options at the high bilateral level. Delhi is now accusing Canada of sheltering and sponsoring anti-India terrorists, with the language used against Canada being stronger than against Pakistan.
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